
The first few weeks of January often see managers contending with higher-than-usual unplanned absences. While scheduled annual leave can be planned around, it's the unpredictable absences, such as sickness or unauthorised leave, that create operational headaches, leading to a decrease in productivity and an increase in catching up on missed tasks.
Research from OneAdvanced [1] shows workers take 53% more sick leave in January than in other months. The CIPD's 2025 Health and Wellbeing at Work report [2] found average sickness absence has reached 9.4 days per employee annually - up 62% from pre-pandemic levels. January concentrates many of these absences, with minor illnesses accounting for 78% of short-term sickness [3].
Meanwhile, Culture Amp's workforce research [4] found 23% of UK workers were considering resignation in 2025 - higher than in the US (19%) or Australia (18%). With replacement costs ranging from 30% to 200% of salary depending on seniority, January presents both operational and retention challenges that warrant advance preparation [4].
Understanding what drives differences in the month of January - and distinguishing legal requirements from good practice - helps organisations navigate the post-holiday period effectively.
Several factors combine in January to create predictable pressure points. The winter months are often associated with increased prevalence of illnesses such as the flu and colds.
NHS data [10] confirms that respiratory infections peak during winter months. The CIPD [2] found minor illnesses account for 78% of short-term absence, with cold, cough, and flu driving much of January's sickness spike.
Employees returning to shared workspaces after household mixing over Christmas often face their first significant exposure to circulating viruses in weeks. For employers, this means high absences in January are largely unavoidable at a population level
Ensure your sickness absence processes are robust enough to handle the seasonal increase with accurate Statutory Sick Pay and company pay administration, and sufficient team cover.
Citizens Advice [11] reports demand for debt advice peaks sharply in January. The combination of Christmas spending, heating bills, and the long gap until the first payday of the year creates cash flow pressure that affects concentration, sleep, and general wellbeing for a proportion of any workforce.
Employees experiencing financial stress may be less focused at work and more likely to take time off for related appointments. Stress itself can also increase susceptibility to illness.
Employers cannot solve personal financial problems, but awareness that the month of January places strain on household budgets helps explain some productivity patterns.
The NHS [7] estimates Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) affects approximately one in fifteen people in the UK. SAD is a type of depression with symptoms that follow a seasonal pattern, typically worsening in winter when daylight hours are shortest.
Those affected often experience persistent low mood and a loss of pleasure in activities they would normally enjoy. Energy levels drop, sleep patterns extend, and concentration becomes difficult [12]. For employees with SAD, January and February often represent the most difficult months as accumulated darkness takes its toll.
SAD is distinct from general low mood. It requires symptoms to have occurred at a particular time of year for two or more years to be diagnosed. Employers cannot diagnose SAD, but awareness that some employees experience a recognised medical condition during winter - rather than a temporary dip in mood - helps explain absence patterns and performance changes around this time.
The NHS [12] recommends maximising exposure to natural light and regular exercise. Employees whose symptoms significantly affect daily life should be encouraged to speak to a GP.
Employers have specific legal duties when employees call in sick or return from sickness absence. Understanding these requirements helps ensure compliance whilst supporting staff appropriately.
Employers must pay Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) (or company sick pay if this is a contractual entitlement) to employees who are too ill to work. Employees can self-certify for the first seven days of absence. Beyond seven days, they require a fit note. Fit notes can be issued by GPs, nurses, occupational therapists, pharmacists, or physiotherapists [14].
When an employee provides a fit note, it will state either that they are "not fit for work" or "may be fit for work" with appropriate adjustments. If the note recommends adjustments - such as a phased return, altered hours, amended duties, or workplace adaptations - employers should discuss these with the employee [14].
If an employee's sickness absence relates to a disability, the duty to consider reasonable adjustments applies. Failure to make reasonable adjustments when under a duty to do so may amount to discrimination under the Equality Act [8], potentially exposing the employer to tribunal claims [15].
Common reasonable adjustments for employees returning from sickness include:
The government's fit note guidance [14] encourages employers to discuss any changes needed with the employee and record agreed adjustments clearly. Where adjustments cannot be implemented, the employee should generally be treated as unfit for work until they recover fully or until alternative satisfactory adjustments have been implemented.
Beyond legal requirements, there are a number of practical steps to help manage and minimise the predictable January spike in absence.
The CIPD [2] emphasises that consistent, clearly communicated absence management processes help both employers and employees understand expectations. Your absence policy should specify:
Applying these processes consistently - regardless of the month or the individual - protects against allegations of discrimination and ensures fair treatment.
Holding return-to-work conversations after every absence serve multiple purposes. They welcome the employee back whilst providing an opportunity to check whether they are well enough to be at work. They also help identify any adjustments needed and maintain accurate absence records.
These conversations don't need to be long or intense - a five-minute check-in with a manager is often enough. If the absence was longer or involves a recurring health issue, or where absence levels are high, a more detailed discussion might be necessary.
ACAS guidance [13] recommends approaching these supportively, focusing on what the employer can do to help rather than creating the impression that sickness absence is inherently suspicious.
January is when wellbeing support may be most needed and least used. Proactively reminding employees what's available can improve uptake precisely when it matters.
CIPD research [2] found 82% of organisations offer an Employee Assistance Programme (EAP), providing confidential counselling, practical advice, and support services. However, only around 5% of employees access their EAP in a typical year according to EAPA UK research [9].
This low utilisation suggests either that employees are unaware of the service, unsure how to access it, or reluctant to use it. The start of the year presents an opportunity for employers to remind staff that EAP support exists.
A simple all-staff communication covering what the EAP offers, how to access it, and confirming its confidentiality can prompt employees who might benefit to make contact. EAPs typically cover mental health support, financial guidance, legal information, and family issues.
The CIPD [2] found that only 29% of organisations train line managers to support mental health, yet where training is provided, 73% report managers feel confident having sensitive conversations compared to 57% where no training exists.
Line managers are usually the first point of contact when employees struggle. Equipping them to recognise signs of difficulty, respond appropriately, and signpost to support services extends the organisation's wellbeing capacity. Absence pressures in January make this capability particularly valuable.
There are several measures that can be incorporated to address challenges during the winter months.
Employers who wait until employees hand in their notice have already lost - engagement activity needs to happen before decisions become final.
The new year naturally prompts reflection on career direction, and conversations with family and friends during the holidays often raise questions about job satisfaction. For employees who received bonus payments in December, a financial barrier to leaving has been removed. The January job market also tends to see increased vacancies as employers begin their hiring cycles for the year ahead.
Research from Boston Consulting Group [16] found employees dissatisfied with their current manager were significantly more likely to be considering leaving - 56% compared to 16% for those satisfied with their manager. The quality of the relationship with a line manager plays a big role in whether employees are likely to stay.
Rather than waiting for exit interviews to learn why people left, "stay conversations" explore what's keeping employees and what might prompt them to look elsewhere.
These conversations work best when they're genuine and when the manager has authority to act on reasonable requests. Timing matters too - they should happen before the employee has already decided to leave or where it becomes evident an employee is unhappy at work.
Effective stay conversations explore what the employee most values about their role and what frustrates them. They also provide an opportunity to discuss what would make the biggest positive difference and how the employee sees their career developing. Beyond gathering intelligence about retention risks, these conversations demonstrate that the organisation values the employee's perspective.
The value of stay conversations depends entirely on what happens afterwards. If employees raise legitimate concerns that receive no response, the conversation becomes evidence that the employer doesn't listen - accelerating rather than preventing departure.
Before initiating stay conversations, managers should understand what flexibility they have. Common concerns tend to focus on workload and development opportunities, though flexibility and recognition also feature frequently. Employers should also familiarise themselves with the grievance process before holding stay conversations, as some employee concerns may be better dealt with under the grievance procedure.
Effective preparation to minimise disruptions in January begins before the holiday break. Employers who establish clear expectations and plan ahead help both themselves and their employees.
The first weeks after the holiday break often expose cracks that exist year-round. High baseline absence, inconsistent management, inadequate wellbeing support - none of these are January-specific problems, but January's pressures make them harder to ignore.
Use this month as a diagnostic: what did the experience reveal about your absence management processes, your wellbeing provision, your management capability, your employee engagement? The answers can inform improvements that benefit the organisation year-round.
Organisations with strong foundations typically weather January without crisis. Employees who feel valued and trust their managers navigate the post-holiday period more smoothly, particularly when they know how to access support and understand absence processes.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The information is accurate at the time of writing but may be subject to change. For advice specific to your situation, please consult a qualified professional.
[1] OneAdvanced, Sick leave: how does the UK compare to the rest of Europe?, 2024.
[2] CIPD and Simplyhealth, Health and Wellbeing at Work Report 2025, September 2025.
[3] Office for National Statistics, Sickness Absence in the UK Labour Market: 2023 and 2024, June 2025.
[4] Culture Amp, UK workforce resignation intentions research, September 2025.
[5] Verve Healthcare analysis of CIPD and IPPR data, The Cost of Absenteeism to UK Employers, 2025.
[6] ACAS, Statutory Sick Pay, 2025.
[7] NHS, Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), 2024.
[8] GOV UK, Reasonable Adjustments for Workers with Disabilities or Health Conditions, 2024.
[9] EAPA UK, Securing the Future of the EAP Report, 2024.
[10] PLOS One, Sickness Absence Rates in NHS England Staff During the COVID-19 Pandemic, July 2025.
[11] Citizens Advice Bureau, reported January demand patterns.
[12] NHS, Seasonal Affective Disorder: Overview, 2024.
[13] ACAS, Managing Absence, 2024.
[14] GOV UK, Getting the Most Out of the Fit Note: Guidance for Employers and Line Managers, October 2023.
[15] Home Office, Equality Act 2010: Duty on Employers to Make Reasonable Adjustments.
[16] Boston Consulting Group, Employee Retention Research, January 2024.
[17] Campaign Monitor and Radicati Group, Email Statistics Report.